This weekend, a friend invited me to play in a poker tournament on behalf of a charity that gives support to crime victims. It was organized by an exceptional group of women who regularly devote their time and energy to doing philanthropic activities. I didn’t do well in the tourney, but was glad to have participated. It gave me a chance to play poker again, — something I hadn’t done for almost a year. This morning, while trying to answer a question posed by one of my patients (who turned out to be a poker fan herself), the idea of cards was still fresh in my mind, so I was inspired to answer her question using a poker-related analogy.
"Julia" (the patient who asked me not to use her real name) is a 28-year-old software consultant who has been married and trying to conceive for two years now. She does not have regular periods and clearly does not grow eggs on her own. She came to see me for help. We agreed to start very conservatively with a monitored cycle of ovulation induction. Last month, on Clomid 50mg, she produced one lovely follicle and got together with her husband at the perfect time. As excited as she was that she finally ovulated, it was devastating when she she found out that she wasn’t pregnant. Her question was a common one. If there was an egg and if the sperm is normal and if they got together at the correct time and if her tubes are clear, then why didn’t she get pregnant? What went wrong?
Well nothing necessarily went wrong. The official medical answer is simply that conception is a probabilistically-determined event. What does that mean?
THE GAME
Let’s play a game. Imagine that you have a deck of cards which will be used to magically determine your fertility. Every month, this deck of cards is thoroughly shuffled and cut and you are asked to draw one card. If that card is a heart, then congratulations! You’re pregnant and it’s time to celebrate. However, if that card is anything other than a heart, then your period will come and you will have to wait until next month to try again. Actually, this is a fairly accurate mathematical representation because the monthly probability of conception for a normal fertile couple is very close to 25%. This means that when an egg is released and the couple have regular sex at random times about twice a week, the chance of them getting pregnant that month, if they are normally fertile, is 25%.
So month after month, women all across the country who are trying to conceive shuffle their decks and draw their cards. Some of them draw a heart on their first month. These are the lucky ones that go off the pill and get pregnant right away. Others have to play this game for 6 or 7 months before they finally draw their lucky heart. Remember that about 85% of normally fertile women will get pregnant within six months.
Pretty simple so far? OK. Let’s go on.
PLAYING WITH A RIGGED DECK
When you are playing poker in any semi-official capacity, the first thing you do before starting the night is to fan out the cards face up so that everyone can verify that we’re playing with a normal deck. There should be 13 spades, 13 diamonds, 13 clubs and 13 hearts. Real life is not so neat. Yes, it’s true that while a couple of NORMAL fertility does get to play with a standard deck, there are couples out there who have DECREASED fertility, so that instead of having 25% hearts in their deck, they might have to play with a rigged deck that has only 8% hearts. So what happens to these unfortunate couples who have a substandard deck of cards? Well, some of them will be lucky and totally beat the odds by drawing a heart on the first try, despite the chance being only 8%. Because all they know is that they got pregnant right away, they will falsely go through life believing that they have normal fertility. The only time that they begin to suspect otherwise is later, when they find themselves taking a long long time to conceive their SECOND child. Of course, not all couples will be so blessed as to hit on the first try. The rest of the couples with the 8% deck might take as long as 15 months to finally draw a lucky winner, especially if their luck is a little below average. By this time, most of them will have already started toying with the idea of seeing a doctor. In practice however, many couples with a 8% deck will conceive on their own. It will just take them longer than the usual easy six months.
A VERY UNFAVORABLE DECK
Let’s go on. There will be still other couples who are even less fortunate and they will have to play with only a single heart in the entire deck, thus giving them a 2% chance of conceiving. This can be for many reasons. Either the husband has a terrible sperm count (but still has SOME sperm), the wife has really poor egg quality (but still drops a normal egg on a rare occasion) or the pelvis is pretty scarred up with endometriosis (but not entirely scarred up). These couples with a 2% deck usually find themselves playing for several years before drawing their one lucky heart. Most of these couples will rightfully get impatient, tire of the game and come in to get medical help. But remember that over the years, with advancing age, your deck of cards will change to have fewer and fewer hearts. So some of these couples might tragically take so long to conceive that they no longer have any hearts in their deck and thereby wind up forever childless.
NOT GETTING TO DRAW
Before we talk about how fertility treatment can help increase your odds of drawing a heart, let’s discuss another group of patients, those who don’t ovulate at all. There are some couples who are POTENTIALLY very fertile. His sperm is great. She is young and her egg quality is wonderful. Her Fallopian tubes are stellar. These couples actually have a deck stacked in their favor, meaning they might even have 30% hearts in their deck. However, due to ovulation problems, they don’t release an egg consistenly every month. One common way to know this is if a woman describes her periods as being so irregular that she only has two periods per year. When periods are this irregular, you don’t know for sure if they are even ovulatory cycles or instead are completely anovulatory cycles that just happen to end up with some odd bleeding. So here we have a couple with a deck packed with hearts, but they are not allowed to draw a card at all because of the lack of ovulation. Well, maybe they might get to draw 1 or 2 cards per year if they can ovulate once or twice, but their good deck is not being utilized to its full potential because they don’t get a monthly draw the way other couples do. For these couples, it is especially dangerous if when getting treatment, they go from ovulating zero eggs per month to ovulating, let’s say, six eggs in one month. In that case we would be taking their supercharged deck that normally sits idle each month and then all of a sudden drawing six cards at one time. The danger is that you’ll get a hand that consists of three or more hearts, meaning you get triplets or more. Yikes. This is the reason that we are especially cautious with completely non-ovulating women. For them, when we start treatment, we like to begin with helping them make just one or two eggs. If after a few careful cycles, they demonstrate that they can make eggs, but still not get pregnant, then that calms our fears a bit about them having a super-charged deck of cards. Then, we slowly increase the number of eggs until they finally get pregnant.
WHAT KIND OF DECK IS YOUR DECK?
If you are still with me, let’s go on to discuss another commonly asked question. How can I know how fertile we are? In other words, how can we figure out if we have a great 30% deck or a bad 2% deck of cards? Is there a way to peek at our deck? The answer is no. We can’t determine for sure what your deck is like, but we can over time, make some pretty accurate assumptions. In science, there are two ways to conclude something. One is by logic and the other is by evidence, meaning we believe things that make sense and we believe things that we actually observe. If you were to ask me to guess what your monthly odds of conceiving are, ie. what your deck of cards is like, I would start out assuming a standard deck (because most average people are … well … average) and then I’d make an adjustment for age. If you are older, I would mentally imagine fewer hearts in your deck. If you are younger, I would mentally picture there being more hearts. Then we start the game and begin to gather the evidence. Let’s say the first month that you stop using any form of contraception, you fail to get pregnant. You have drawn a card and it’s not a heart. You put the card back. No big deal. Just a bit of bad luck. Then, next month, you shuffle the deck and draw another card. Still no heart. Mind you that you don’t get to actually look at the deck at any time. Your only actual knowledge about the contents of the deck is based on the cards you draw. In other words, your only information about your odds of getting pregnant comes from observing whether or not you get pregnant each month. Third month, you draw a card. Yay! A heart. Your assumption that your deck is a normal one is probably correct. In any case, you don’t care, because you’re now pregnant and have other things to start thinking about. But what if things happen differently? What if your third month is also negative, as are your 4th through 24th months? This means you have now gone two years without getting pregnant. Are people going to tell you that you’re deck is normal and you’re just unlucky or just not timing it properly or just stressing about it too much? Maybe. But they would be wrong. The most logical conclusion is that there is something wrong with your deck. If you go two years without conceiving, you must face the fact that you don’t have a normal 25% monthly chance. There might be very few hearts in your deck, or heaven-forbid, no hearts at all!
This nicely illustrates the principle of how I would estimate your chances of conceiving. First, I make certain estimates regarding your deck of cards based on your age, lab tests and whatever other clues I can gather. And then I study what your past history of card draws has been.
OK, enough for now. It’s time for me to take a very short break to play some online poker on Facebook. Next time, we’ll continue and describe the ways we can help you cheat and turn things to your advantage so you will be able to draw your first heart sooner.