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Eight out of eight unlikely

February 3, 2009 By 2 Comments

I may turn out to wrong, but I still think it’s possible that the reports about the octuplets being from transfer of eight embryos will turn out to be inaccurate. Rather than this being a case of eight hits out of eight chances, it’s more plausible that this is a case of eight hits out of MORE THAN eight chances. Either this was ovulation induction with more than eight eggs ovulated or this was transfer of more than eight embryos. I gave some sample calculations in a previous post. Excerpts of my comments appear today in USA Today.

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  • http://www.mloknitting.com MLO

    I want to thank you for putting out facts from an actual RE instead of allowing non-REs be the only voices on this. There is a lot of misinformation being put out there by non-RE medical professionals – including reproductive health professionals – and it is making it hard on a lot of infertility patients who are angry over the way this story is being covered.

  • Robin

    What about the chance of this being a big lie in the first place, that the six prior children were NOT IVF, and that this one was self induced by purchasing Pergonal? She wanted to have 12 total, wouldn’t it be easy for someone who is determined and at the same time obsessive about producing more and more children to reach her goal by simply upping the ante?

    Maybe you would know this, on a birth certificate is it listed somewhere that the birth was a result of IVF? The family has already stated the father (only they say “donor”)is the same for all the children. Today the grandmother stated that David Soloman “hasn’t been around much” but that he wanted to marry her. He is NAMED on the other birth certificates. Wouldn’t he be financially responsible for all of these children even if it was IVF unless some sort of legal arrangements were made? And in this case he would have to be in on the insanity. Your odds give the chances of successful frozen embryo pregnancy. I read that in ONE cycle of retrieval you just don’t get that many viable eggs. She would have had to have done this (by your odds) several times to have gotten 14 children out of it. Call me skeptical, but the whole thing sounds VERY fishy to me.